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Crude prices fall due to rise of United States crude stocks

15 June 2017

OPEC and other exporters such as Russian Federation have agreed to curb oil production by almost 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) to the end of the first quarter of 2018.

OPEC and in inclusive with other exporters such as Russian Federation have accepted to keep manufacturing nearly 1.8 million barrels per day and will not increase the output until the end of the 1 quarter of 2018.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed that domestic-crude supplies fell by 1.7 million barrels for the week ended June 9.

According tneighboursncy's latest report, there have yet to be supply disruptions, but exporters of Qatar's crude, condensate and liquefied natural gas have already faced some logistical troubles.

USA stocks were little changed on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve made a widely expected move to raise interest rates for the second time in three months. USA propane, for example, trades at the equivalent of about $25 a barrel.

Oil prices are trading lower this afternoon.

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More specifically for oil, there are signs of a slowdown in China, long the key driver in fuel demand growth, as its economy slows down and refiners have produced far too much fuel for the market to consume, forcing a slowdown in activity.

"Based on our current numbers, assuming stable OPEC production, market deficits should be significant in 2H17, although adverse changes to demand and supply data can erode prospective stock draws", IEA said. This sector has been one of the biggest headaches for OPEC as they has been flexible in increasing output in response to higher prices.

The IEA has revised its forecast upwards for USA oil production this year, and said Brazil and Canada were also expected "to make further gains". Prices have averaged higher so far this year, at around $51.8 a barrel. It predicts that output will grow even faster next year, by 1.5 million barrels daily, "which is slightly more than the expected increase in global demand".

The increase in exports via tanker was also reflected in higher output by the group, which said in a report on Tuesday that it produced 32.14 million bpd in May, up 336,000 bpd from the prior month. In 2016, the top three crude oil producing countries were Saudi Arabia (10.46 mb/d), Russian Federation (10.29 mb/d) and the United States (8.88 mb/d).

"We think this effectively takes September off the table", said Ian Lyngen, head of USA rates strategy at BMO Capital Markets in NY, in reference to the impact of the data on the probability of a September Fed rate increase.

The IEA forecast that non-Opec output will rise this year by 660,000 bpd compared with last year's decline of 845,000 bpd, and then accelerate next year by 1.5 million bpd, led by the USA and with gains from Brazil and Canada offsetting declines in the United Kingdom, Kazakhstan, Ghana, Congo, Mexico and China.